Saturday, March 15, 2008

Will we see a meltdown in September?

I had a friend post that some European analysts see the global financial system encountering a meltdown in September (sorry, can't find attribution).


If the system goes, it's going to go much sooner than September.

This paper is dry reading, but Bernanke wrote it in 2004. It's basically "What can the Fed do when we're truly fucked and nothing else is working", and it advocates outright purchase of assets when the Fed rate drops close to zero.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2004/200448/200448pap.pdf

However, the Fed just cannot control the flight of money out of the US markets, which becomes inevitable when risk, low ROI, and inflation make Brazil seem stable by comparison.

However, if we go, the world is coming with us. Europe and Asia simply cannot survive without us, yet. The entire world is one fiancial organism now, and like the Great Depression, it's going to hit everywhere if it does hit.

So far people are cheering the inventive interventions in the market. It's hilarious to watch all these free market capitalists screaming for socialist intervention in their investments. Just remember this when people claim the Democrats want to intrude into corporations, at least they'll do it both on the way up and the way down, as a way to pay for bailouts when times get bad. Republicans intervene just as much, but the bill goes to the little guy taxpayer rather than the investors and brokers after the markets are bailed out.

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